According to PCS, insured losses from the conflict in Ukraine reach 20 billion dollars
A number of ports have ceased operations, although exposure to physical damage appears to vary depending on proximity to fighting. Insured losses could therefore accumulate quickly. Although there are no firm estimated ranges in the market yet, PCS customers have suggested that losses could range from US$2 billion to US$5 billion, although there is still considerable uncertainty in this fork. In addition, we have had discussions with some about freight losses in the market. Some see it as a minimal contribution to industry-wide insured maritime loss, while a different perspective notes the volumes of grain moving through affected ports and the potential for spoilage. Market estimates have yet to be released, but expectations appear to be that overall cargo losses will be small compared to those from blocking and trapping and ports and terminals.
Overall, PCS estimates that industry-wide insured marine losses could range from US$3 billion to US$6 billion, with a working estimate of US$5 billion. Since much of the loss is time-related, it will take some time before reliable estimates hit the market.
3. Energy: According to PCS market sources, most insured energy losses are expected to come from the onshore sector, with wind farms alone likely incurring up to US$850 million in insured losses globally. ‘industry. And of course, several nuclear facilities have suffered damage or other disruptions that could lead to assured losses in the future, including Zaporizhzhia and potentially Chernobyl, according to public reports. Nuclear casualties tend to be costly, due to the specialized manpower and equipment needed for even the most seemingly mundane tasks, a situation exacerbated by security requirements.
While we haven’t discussed much else with others with this degree of specificity, there seems to be plenty of exposure, including public reports of other damaged power plants. Ukraine produces 65% of the energy it consumes locally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), but the country imports more than 80% of the oil it consumes and half of the coal it consumes. he consumes. The use of nuclear energy accounts for a considerable share of national energy production. The implications of Ukraine being a transit country for fossil fuel exports from Russia do not appear to have materialized, although the possibility remains.
Typically, expected insured losses for the entire land energy industry can be difficult to determine this early in the dispute. Being able to get adjusters to the field is key to understanding estimates of insured energy losses ashore due to political violence, as PCS saw when producing estimates for PCS Turkey Catastrophe 1613, a political violence event in the southeastern part of the country in which about 10 percent of the industry’s loss came from major energy programs.
At this time, it is difficult to predict a potential industry-wide impact for this sector, but conversations with clients suggest that industry-wide insured losses exceed $2 billion. Americans seem likely, especially with wind farms and nuclear facilities potentially accounting for half of that.
4. Assets per peril: Assets per peril may take the longest to accumulate, as a large number of businesses may be affected, limits may be high, and business interruption may contribute significantly to any total industry-wide insured losses for that class. work. This class of business, after aviation, may be the largest source of industry-wide insured losses in Ukraine. Forty percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) comes from steel and grain, and several of those insured are already flagged by the global re/insurance community.